Surprise! : from CEOs to Navy SEALs : how a select group of professionals prepare for and respond to the unexpected / Dave Baiocchi, D. Steven Fox

Author: Baiocchi, Dave
Published: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2013.
Physical Description: xxiii, 82 pages : color illustrations ; 23 cm
Additional Creators: Fox, D. Steven, Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.), Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division, Rand Corporation, and United States. National Reconnaissance Office

Online Version

www.rand.org , Online access

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Contents

Introduction -- Why Study Surprise? -- Research Objective, Definitions, and Initial Conceptual Models -- Research Hypotheses -- Research Method -- What Strategies Are Common Across Professions? -- How Does the Level of Environmental Chaos Affect Practitioners’ Responses to Surprises? -- How Do Strategists Differ from Tacticians in Dealing with Surprise? -- Surprise as an Opportunity -- Helpful Lessons from Specific Professions -- Key Observations and Their Implications.

Summary

This report relates what professionals believe creates surprise, how they respond to it, and how the effects of surprise can be mitigated. To understand how different professions respond to surprise, RAND researchers developed a framework that categorizes professionals’ responses to surprise in terms of the time available to respond and the level of chaos in the environment, then conducted discussions with representatives from 13 different professions, including former ambassadors, chief executive officers, military personnel, and physicians. RAND observed that the interviewees all used common coping strategies, such as relying on past experience and trying to reduce the level of chaos in the environment. However, there were also important differences in the responses taken by different types of professionals: “strategists” (e.g., CEOs and foreign service officers) focused more on controlling anger and ego, and communicating and coordinating with others, while “tacticians” (e.g., medical practitioners and SWAT team members)—who typically have a shorter response time—focused more on controlling panic and buying time. The report concludes with recommendations on how practitioners can better prepare for and respond to surprise.

Report Numbers

RAND/RR-341-NRO

Subject(s)

Note

"RAND National Defense Research Institute."
"This research was conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD)"--Pref.

Bibliography Note

Includes bibliographical references (pages 81-82).

Other Forms

Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.

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