Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs [electronic resource].

Published:: Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy, 2005.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
Additional Creators:: United States. Department of Energy and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information

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Summary:

Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

Report Numbers:

E 1.99:lbnl--58498
lbnl--58498

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Note:

Published through SciTech Connect.
05/11/2005.
"lbnl--58498"
": EL1702010"
Energy Engineering 103 2 ISSN 0199-8595; EENGDO FT
Kumar, Satish; Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick.
Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, Berkeley, CA (US)

Funding Information:

DE-AC02-05CH11231
470871

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