Commercial-energy-use model for the ten US Federal regions. [Floor-space-demand forecast to 1995] [electronic resource].
- Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1981. and Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
- Physical Description:
- Pages: 70 : digital, PDF file
- Additional Creators:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
- Development of a regional forecasting tool for energy demand in the commercial sector of the US is described. Data bases for each of the ten Federal regions are developed as input to the ORNL commercial energy-demand model to evaluate conservation policies, new technologies, and fuel-price strategies on a regional basis from 1970 to 2000. Commercial-floor-space econometric models for each of ten commercial building types in each of the ten Federal regions are estimated to forecast the growth of energy using capital on a regional basis. In addition, regional energy-use indices (Btu/ft/sup 2/) are calculated using revised commercial energy-use and floor-space estimates. Comparisons are made between the commercial-floor-space forecasts of the regional models and the national commercial-energy-use model. In addition, validation of the forecasting accuracy of the regional models is made for a historical period. All regions show fuel switching away from fuel oil and natural gas to electricity. Regions 4, 6, and 10 (Southeastern, Southwestern, and Lower Western States) show the largest growth rates of projected primary energy consumption for the ten Federal regions with the Great Lakes states the lowest.
- Published through SciTech Connect., 03/01/1981., "ornl/con-40", and Cohn, S.M.; Corum, K.R.; Kurish, J.; Emerson, C.
- Funding Information:
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