Actions for Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks [electronic resource].

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Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks [electronic resource].

Published
Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy, 2005.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
Physical Description
26 pages : digital, PDF file
Additional Creators
Sandia National Laboratories, United States. Department of Energy, and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
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Summary
The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context of the thermal challenge problem. A BBN is developed for a given set of experimental data in a particular experimental configuration. The development of the BBN and the method for ''solving'' the BBN to develop the posterior distribution of model output through Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling is discussed in detail. The use of the BBN to compute a Bayes' factor is demonstrated.
Report Numbers
E 1.99:sand2005-5980
sand2005-5980
Subject(s)
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Note
Published through SciTech Connect.
11/01/2005.
"sand2005-5980"
Swiler, Laura Painton; McFarland, John.
Funding Information
AC04-94AL85000
View MARC record | catkey: 14345819