Critique of ``Expected Value`` models [electronic resource].
Published
Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Defense, 1996. Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
There are a number of models in the defense community which use a methodology referred to as ``Expected Value`` to perform sequential calculations of unit attritions or expenditures. The methodology applied to two-sided, dependent, sequential events can result in an incorrect model. An example of such an incorrect model is offered to show that these models may yield results which deviate significantly from a stochastic or Markov process approach. The example was derived from an informal discussion at the Center for Naval Analyses.
Report Numbers
E 1.99:la-ur--96-1185 E 1.99: conf-960795--1 conf-960795--1 la-ur--96-1185