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Peaking of world oil production [electronic resource] : Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

Published
Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy, 2005.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
Additional Creators
National Energy Technology Laboratory (U.S.), United States. Department of Energy, and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
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Summary
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.
Report Numbers
E 1.99:doe/netl-ir-2005-093
E 1.99: netl-tpr-2319
netl-tpr-2319
doe/netl-ir-2005-093
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Note
Published through SciTech Connect.
02/01/2005.
"doe/netl-ir-2005-093"
" netl-tpr-2319"
Hirsch, R.L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert.
Funding Information
DE-AM26-99FT40575 Task 21006W and Subcontract Agreement 7010001197
View MARC record | catkey: 14703001