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Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China [electronic resource].

Published:
Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy, 2000.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy.
Physical Description:
29 pages : digital, PDF file
Additional Creators:
Argonne National Laboratory, United States. Department of Energy, and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
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Summary:
Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO₂ emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO₂ emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO₂ emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could reach the current US levels.
Report Numbers:
E 1.99:anl/es/cp-102554
anl/es/cp-102554
Subject(s):
Other Subject(s):
Note:
Published through SciTech Connect.
12/12/2000.
"anl/es/cp-102554"
2001 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC (US), 01/08/2001--01/12/2001.
Wang, M.; He, D.
Funding Information:
W-31-109-ENG-38
View MARC record | catkey: 14703351