Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

Author:: Hunter, H. E.
Published:: Aug 1, 1972.
Physical Description:: 1 electronic document
Additional Creators:: Amato, R. A.

Online Version

hdl.handle.net , Connect to this object online.

Availability

Finding items...

Restrictions on Access:

Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available.
Free-to-read Unrestricted online access

Summary:

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Other Subject(s):

SPACE RADIATION

Collection:

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Collection.

Note:

Document ID: 19730003084.
Accession ID: 73N11811.
NASA-CR-123925.
AVSD-0287-72-CR.

Terms of Use and Reproduction:

No Copyright.

View MARC record | catkey: 15945083