A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration
- Earle, Kevin
- September 09, 2008.
- Physical Description:
- 1 electronic document
- Additional Creators:
- Goodliff, Kandyce, Stromgren, Chel, Merrill, R. Gabe, Cirillo, Bill, and Andraschko, Mark
- Restrictions on Access:
- Unclassified, Unlimited, Publicly available.
Free-to-read Unrestricted online access
- Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.
- Other Subject(s):
- NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) Collection.
- Document ID: 20080040159.
AIAA Space 2008 Conference and Exposition; 9-11 Sep. 2008; San Diego, CA; United States.
- Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright.
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