Exploration of Use of Copulas in Analysing the Relationship between Precipitation and Meteorological Drought in Beijing, China [electronic resource].
- Beijing, China : National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), 2017.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy
- Physical Description:
- 11 pages : digital, PDF file
- Additional Creators:
- Argonne National Laboratory
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
United States. Department of Energy
United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
- Drought risk analysis is essential for regional water resource management. In this study, the probabilistic relationship between precipitation and meteorological drought in Beijing, China, was calculated under three different precipitation conditions (precipitation equal to, greater than, or less than a threshold) based on copulas. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated based on monthly total precipitation and monthly mean temperature data. The trends and variations in the SPEI were analysed using Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) trend tests with a running approach. The results of the HHT and MK test indicated a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI. The copula-based conditional probability indicated that the probability of meteorological drought decreased as monthly precipitation increased and that 10 mm can be regarded as the threshold for triggering extreme drought. From a quantitative perspective, when R ≤ mm, the probabilities of moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 22.1%, 18%, and 13.6%, respectively. This conditional probability distribution not only revealed the occurrence of meteorological drought in Beijing but also provided a quantitative way to analyse the probability of drought under different precipitation conditions. Furthermore, the results provide a useful reference for future drought prediction.
- Published through SciTech Connect.
Advances in Meteorology 2017 ISSN 1687-9309 AM
Linlin Fan; Hongrui Wang; Cheng Wang; Wenli Lai; Yong Zhao.
National Key Basic Research Program of China
- Funding Information:
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