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Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming [electronic resource].

Published
Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy, 2016.
Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy
Physical Description
pages 1,417-1,428 : digital, PDF file
Additional Creators
Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States. Department of Energy, and United States. Department of Energy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information
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Summary
Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.
Report Numbers
E 1.99:la-ur--15-27649
la-ur--15-27649
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Note
Published through SciTech Connect.
02/20/2016.
"la-ur--15-27649"
Journal of Climate 29 4 ISSN 0894-8755 AM
Petr Chylek; Timothy J. Vogelsang; James D. Klett; Nicholas Hengartner; Dave Higdon; Glen Lesins; Manvendra K. Dubey.
Funding Information
AC52-06NA25396
View MARC record | catkey: 23776213