Evaluating methods to estimate the effect of state laws on firearm deaths [electronic resource] : a simulation study / Terry L. Schell, Beth Ann Griffin, Andrew R. Morral
- Schell, Terry L., 1967-
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 
- Physical Description:
- xv, 95 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
- Additional Creators:
- Griffin, Beth Ann, Morral, Andrew R., and Rand Corporation
- Restrictions on Access:
- License restrictions may limit access.
- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- CHAPTER TWO: Methods -- Criteria for Assessing Performance of Statistical Models -- Design of the Simulation -- Statistical Models Investigated -- Simulation Implementation -- CHAPTER THREE: Results -- Type Error Rates -- Correct Rejection Rates -- Directional Bias -- Magnitude Bias -- Other Considerations in Model Selection -- CHAPTER FOUR: Discussion -- Concerns About Low Power -- Common Adjustments to Standard Errors Often Were Insufficient -- Log Transformation of Rate Outcomes Resulted in Inference Errors -- Limitations -- Conclusions -- APPENDIXES: A. Technical Description of Evaluated Models -- B. Standard Error Correction Factors.
- The RAND Corporation launched its Gun Policy in America initiative with the goal of creating objective, factual resources for policymakers and the public on the effects of gun laws. As a part of this project, RAND researchers conducted a systematic literature review and evaluation of scientific studies on the effects of 13 classes of policies. One of the findings of the review was that the effects of policies estimated in the literature appeared to be sensitive to the specific statistical methods that were employed. This suggests the importance of identifying the most-appropriate statistical methods to use on these data. In this report, the authors use simulations to assess the performance of a wide range of statistical models commonly used in the gun policy literature to estimate the effects of state-level gun policies on firearm deaths. The study aimed to identify the most-appropriate statistical modeling and analysis methods for estimating the effect of these policies on firearm deaths, which may help in the evaluation of whether estimates from prior research can be considered to be accurate. The results suggest substantial statistical problems with many of the methods used. The authors also identify the best method among those assessed. This report should be of interest to researchers familiar with statistical methods for estimating causal effects in longitudinal time series data, those who are trying to understand the effects of gun policies as revealed in the existing literature, or those who are planning new studies that use statistical models to investigate these effects.
- Report Numbers:
- "A part of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative."
- Bibliography Note:
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 87-93).
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