Assumption-based planning : a planning tool for very uncertain times / James A. Dewar [and others].
- Published
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 1993.
- Physical Description
- xviii, 78 pages ; 23 cm
- Additional Creators
- Dewar, James A., Builder, Carl H., Hix, William M. (William Michael), 1940-, Levin, Morlie H., Arroyo Center. Manpower, Training, and Performance Program, Rand Corporation, and United States. Army
Online Version
- www.rand.org , Online access
- Summary
- This report documents the five steps of a strategic planning methodology (Assumption-Based Planning) RAND has developed over the last four years, provides examples of the methodology (showing its application in an end-to-end exemplar of the Army's long-range planning exercise -- Army 21), and suggests some lessons learned from the applications. The five steps of the methodology are (1) identifying important assumptions underlying an organization's operations or plans; (2) identifying assumption vulnerabilities within the planning horizon; (3) defining signposts (i.e., indicators or warning signs of a change in an assumption's vulnerability); (4) defining shaping actions (actions taken to avert or cause the failure of an assumption); and (5) defining hedging actions (actions taken to better prepare for the failure of an assumption). The document compares ABP with other methodologies and argues that the methodology provides a systematic way of thinking about and dealing with a future containing fundamental uncertainties about an organization's ends.
- Report Numbers
- RAND/MR-114-A
- Subject(s)
- Other Subject(s)
- ISBN
- 0833013416
- Note
- Prepared within "the Manpower, Training, and Performance Program (now the Manpower and Training Program) of RAND's Arroyo Center"--Pref.
- Bibliography Note
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 77-78).
- Other Forms
- Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.
- Funding Information
- Army; MDA903-91-C-0006; RCN 124X
- Complexity Note
- Supersedes RAND/WD-5993-A.
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