Actions for Uncertainty and integrated pest management : an information-theoretic analysis of the role of climatic data in controlling the European corn borer

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Uncertainty and integrated pest management : an information-theoretic analysis of the role of climatic data in controlling the European corn borer

Author
Bass, Bradley L., 1958-
Published
[Place of publication not identified] : [publisher not identified], 1989.
Physical Description
185 leaves

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Graduate Program
Summary
In this research the focus is on how the use of different climatic and meteorological data sources affects the management of insect pests. Information theory is used as a means of evaluating the quality of these data, with regard to the degree of uncertainty that is imparted to the predicted oviposition of the European corn borer (ECB). The results suggest that the uncertainty of the predicted oviposition is primarily a result of the first-generation larval population distribution. The uncertainty of the predicted oviposition was reduced when local temperature observations were used in conjunction with climatic data to drive the simulation.An introduction is provided to the three areas incorporated into the research: geographic scale,information theory, and pest management, with particular attention paid to the ECB. Following this introduction, three different temperature data sets, at three different geographic scales, are compared with respect to their uncertainty, and expense. The comparison is performed through translating the numerical limits around each observation into the units of information. Maximum and minimum temperatures, from a large-scale data base, are then used to generate random 21-day sequences that are used as inputs into a model that simulates second- generation ECB oviposition. The model is run for various starting temperatures and initial first-generation ECB population distributions. The results suggest that the first-generation larval population is of greater importance than temperature in the uncertainty of simulated oviposition. With additional observations and forecasts for Rock Springs, Pennsylvania, the simulation is then used to examine how the uncertainty in oviposition changes with different sources of temperature data. The uncertainty in oviposition is more sensitive to the use of real-time observations of temperature than to different sources of climatic data. The uncertainty in oviposition is then examined with respect to redundancy, which is distinctly different across the two geographic scales. The small- and large-scale temperature data are compared with respect to the noise. The noise attributable to individual observations increases significantly at the larger scale. [author abstract]
Dissertation Note
Ph.D. Pennsylvania State University.
Reproduction Note
Microfilm (positive). 1 reel 35mm., (University Microfilms 90-18186).
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