Methodology for impact assessment of Northwest energy developments over the next fifty years

Author: Erickson, L. E.
Published: United States : [publisher not identified], 1976.
[Oak Ridge, Tennessee] : [U.S. Atomic Energy Commission], 1976.
Physical Description: microfiche : negative ; 11 x 15 cm
Additional Creators: Currie, J. W.

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Summary

A large-scale dynamic simulation model is being constructed for ERDA to help assess impacts of energy-related developments through the year 2025 in six northwestern states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska). Submodels being built at Battelle-Northwest deal with air and water quality, land use, bioproductivity, demography, social and psychological impacts, and the central energy-economic components. The structure of the latter submodel is discussed in this paper. This energy-economic submodel is currently expected to contain the following components: a regional economic model, an energy demand component, an energy supply system, an energy market clearing process, an energy production and consumption accounting and/or energy balance, and the production of externalities at all levels of energy exploration, extraction, processing, distribution, and consumption. These components are now in varying stages of conceptualization and implementation. Energy demand will be estimated using econometric relationships for total energy demand and market shares by the various fuels in each consumption sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation). The energy supply system is being simulated using a systems dynamics framework. This approach allows the explicit treatment of the dynamic lags which are always present in the capital intensive supply system. A linear programming algorithm is used to balance regional production (subject to capacity constraints), imports, and exports. Energy production and consumption figures for the various fuels will be summed to output an energy balance for the region in each future time period.

Report Numbers

BNWL-SA-5703

Other Subject(s)

Collection

U.S. Atomic Energy Commission depository collection.

Note

DOE contract number: EY-76-C-06-1830
OSTI Identifier 7100733
Research organization: Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, WA (USA).

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