Does money matter in predicting future events? / Sebastian Diemer

Author: Diemer, Sebastian
Published: Hamburg, Germany : Anchor Academic Publishing, 2014.
Copyright Date: ©2014
Physical Description: 1 online resource (50 pages) : illustrations (some color), tables

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Series

Compact

Language Note

English.

Contents

Does money matter in predicting future events?; Abstract; List of Content; 1. Introduction and Theoretical Fundamentals; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Definition of Prediction Markets; 1.3 Theoretical Framework; 2. Literature Overview; 2.1 Real-Money vs. Play-Money; 2.2 Other Factors With Influence on Forecasting Accuracy; 2.3 Closed Prediction Markets; 3. Data; 3.1 Data Provider; 3.2 Definition of Variables; 4. Results; 4.1 Overall Data; 4.2 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Portfolio Comparison; 4.3 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Direct Contract Comparison; 4.4 Real-Money/Play-Money: Influencing Factors and 4.5. ConclusionReferences; Appendix

Summary

Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current sta.

Subject(s)

ISBN

9783954896325 (electronic bk.)
395489632X (electronic bk.)
9783954891320
3954891328

Bibliography Note

Includes bibliographical references.

View MARC record | catkey: 43193419