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Estimation of uncertainty in coal resources

Author
Tewalt, S. J.
Published
United States : [publisher not identified], 1983
Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, [approximately 1983]
Physical Description
microfiche : negative ; 11 x 15 cm
Additional Creators
Ayers, Jr, W. B., Barnes, J. W., Bauer, M. A., Kaiser, W. R., Mathew, D., and Roberts, M. P.

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Summary
Our report focuses on the comparison of variability in coal resource estimates in areas of different ancient depositional environments. The Texas Gulf Coast Basin was chosen for this study because it exhibits a full range of ancient depositional environments: (1) upper alluvial plain; (2) lower alluvial/upper delta plain; (3) delta plain; and (4) strandplain/lagoonal. Four lignite deposits, each representing one of these depositional environments, were evaluated. Important sources of uncertainty in resource estimation include variability of seam thickness, areal distribution, and the number of seams. To test the degree of uncertainty caused by variations in seam thickness, the numbers of boreholes considered in each lignite deposit are reduced and resources calculated for each reduction in data. Various techniques of resource calculation (manual, computer, and geostatistical) are used to investigate the uncertainties associated with each method. Determination of the areal extent and seam boundaries of coal beds is a major source of uncertainty. Data availability for regional-scale resource analysis nullifies seam-by-seam (deposit) methodologies. Our regional test area was the Wilcox Group outcrop in east-central Texas. Methodology was successfully transferred to the Tongue River Member, Wyoming, and the Allegheny Formation. Calculated resources indicate the magnitude of total resources, but do not quantitatively measure the associated uncertainty.
Report Numbers
DE84900623; NP-4900623
Other Subject(s)
Collection
NTIS collection.
Note
OSTI Identifier 5297987
Research organization: Texas Energy and Natural Resources Advisory Council, Austin (USA).
Research organization: Texas Univ., Austin (USA). Bureau of Economic Geology.
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