Actions for Psychological scaling of expert estimates of human error probabilities : application to nuclear power plant operation

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Psychological scaling of expert estimates of human error probabilities : application to nuclear power plant operation

Author
Comer, K.
Published
United States : [publisher not identified], 1985
Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service, [approximately 1985]
Physical Description
microfiche : negative ; 11 x 15 cm
Additional Creators
Gaddy, C. D., Seaver, D. A., and Stillwell, W. G.

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Summary
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a project to evaluate psychological scaling techniques for use in generating estimates of human error probabilities. The project evaluated two techniques: direct numerical estimation and paired comparisons. Expert estimates were found to be consistent across and within judges. Convergent validity was good, in comparison to estimates in a handbook of human reliability. Predictive validity could not be established because of the lack of actual relative frequencies of error (which will be a difficulty inherent in validation of any procedure used to estimate HEPs). Application of expert estimates in probabilistic risk assessment and in human factors is discussed.
Report Numbers
DE85013754; SAND-85-7201C; CONF-850996-2
Other Subject(s)
Collection
NTIS collection.
Note
DOE contract number: AC04-76DP00789
OSTI Identifier 5461216
Research organization: General Physics Corp., Columbia, MD (USA).
Research organization: Texas Maxima Corp., San Antonio (USA).
View MARC record | catkey: 47354607