Machine generated contents note: pt. I BACKGROUND -- 1.Judgment and decision making / Baruch Fischhoff -- 2.Amos Tversky (1937-96) / Baruch Fischhoff -- pt. II HINDSIGHT BIAS -- 3.Hindsight [≠] foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty / Baruch Fischhoff -- 4.For those condemned to study the past: reflections on historical judgment / Baruch Fischhoff -- 5.An early history of hindsight research / Baruch Fischhoff -- pt. III JUDGMENT -- 6.Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective / Ruth Beyth-Marom -- 7.Knowing with certainty: the appropriateness of extreme confidence / Sarah Lichtenstein -- 8.Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation / Sarah Lichtenstein -- 9.Assessing uncertainty in physical constants / Baruch Fischhoff -- 10.Fifty-fifty = 50% / Wandi Bruine de Bruin -- pt. IV EVALUATION -- 11.Predicting frames / Baruch Fischhoff -- 12.Value elicitation: is there anything in there? / Baruch Fischhoff -- 13.Informed consent for eliciting environmental values / Baruch Fischhoff -- pt. V DECIDING -- 14.Giving advice: decision theory perspectives on sexual assault / Baruch Fischhoff -- 15.The real world: what good is it? / Baruch Fischhoff -- 16.Assessing adolescent decision-making competence / Baruch Fischhoff -- 17.Questions of competence: the duty to inform and the limits to choice / Sara Eggers.
